By Lieke Kuiper
Syria; everyone knows the country for its spectacularly failed Arabic Spring. While the rest of the Middle East saw regime changes and increasing freedom, a civil war erupted in Syria. How this conflict could have escalated so quickly, can only be understood if one looked at the context of Syria’s history of internal conflicts. First this article will shed light on the history of the previous conflicts will be provided, after which an overview of the current civil war will follow.
100 years ago, Syria came into existence. In 1920, the Ottoman Empire fell apart and Syria was formed. Up until 1920, Damascus and Aleppo were 2 independent states, with their own economic relevant areas. The 2 cities have a history of rivalry and were in conflict over influence in the region during the period where they belonged to the Ottoman Empire.
1914 – 1918: The French and the British fight against the Turks during WWI. In 1916 the Arabs join the British, they are promised an autonomous Arab region after the war. The Brits and the Arabs conquer over the Ottoman Empire together. The united Arab state, however, never came into existence.
1918: The French rule the area of Syria, putting former independent states Damascus and Aleppo into one country. The rivalry between the two cities continues. On top of that, Syria is overflown by religious and national pluralism, making it difficult to maintain a peaceful united Syria.
1939: During WWII, the US and the USSR both try to get Syria to join their side (capitalism vs. communism). The two powers were not shy of using sectarian or political conflicts in Syria to achieve this goal.
1946: After WWII, Syria finally gained its independence from France. Syria was a democratic state with a parliamentary system and relative freedom of press. Political stability, however, was not yet achieved. The economic elite in both Damascus and Aleppo form their own political parties: the National Party in Damascus and the Folk Party in Aleppo. Damascus sought to form alliances with Saudi-Arabia, while Aleppo tried to restore its former glory by allying itself with Iraq. The people in rural Syria were overlooked by both parties, which led to them forming their own alliances with various minorities in the military and the socialist Ba’ath Party, which sought to establish a united Arab State.
1948: The political instability grows stronger when Syria loses dramatically in the Arabic-Israeli war
1949: This instability leads to a series of military coups in Syria. The military claims it wants what’s best for all Syrians, but in practice they want what’s best for themselves.
1958: Due to political unrest in the entire Middle East and in Syria itself, the now Ba’athist country joins Egypt. The stronger state of Egypt dismantles the Syrian political party system, suppresses every form of opposition and restricts the freedom of press. The Egyptian rule leads to the exploitation of the Syrian agricultural classes and the erosion of the economic elite. Resulting in growing fears and tensions between Syria's upper and lower classes.
1961: Syria and Egypt split as a result of a military coup, which gives the power back to the people. Previous tensions between various groups and classes, however, rise again. Rumours of Damascus and Aleppo wanting to divide the country in a northern and southern part further instigates these tensions. The Ba’ath Party who wants to resist the Sunni elite in these cities gains influence.
1963: After another military coup, the state of emergency is declared, leading to suppression of all forms of freedom and destruction of the political system. Several other coups follow, resulting in the Alawitic minority gaining power (Alawitism is a splinter group of Shiism). This minority politically side-lined the Sunni majority, after which the suppression of the Sunni population in Syria started (Syria is predominantly Sunni).
1966: The last military coup was committed by Hafez Al-Assad, father of current Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad. Hafez suppressed all opposition, even from his own Ba’ath Party.
1970: Hafez Al-Assad becomes president of Syria. As an Alawi Muslim, he further suppresses the Sunni majority, completely removing them from all active political functions. The, predominantly Sunni, economic elite in Aleppo and Damascus keep quiet in the face of these suppressions, in order to protect their economic interests.
1979: The Muslim Brotherhood, originally from Egypt, gains influence in the suppressed Sunni communities, mostly in Hama, Aleppo and Damascus.
1982: Uprisings from the Muslim Brotherhood are forcibly ended. 30.000 people died. Out of fear, further civilian dissatisfaction with the Assad-regime is kept quiet. Ever since, Syria is named ‘the symbol of stability’ in an otherwise conflict-ridden area. This stability, however, is the result of fear and suppression. To calm internal tensions between lower and upper classes, food prices are kept low artificially.
2000: Hafez dies and his son Bashar takes over. Bashar starts his presidency with a small Arabic Spring: he allowed some freedom of press, released political prisoners and allows intellectual debates. The Syrian population is relieved; the new Al-Assad will reform and free the country.
2001: They were proven wrong. As little as a year later, the Spring ends. The press is silenced once again, and the political opposition is re-arrested. The economic reforms of Bashar make the rich (mostly the elite in Aleppo and Damascus) including himself, richer and the poor even poorer.
2011: The unrest and dissatisfaction have been growing under the surface ever since 2001. In 2011, however, it reached its tipping point. When some teenagers graffitied revolutionary slogans on their schools, and as result were shot dead by security forces, thousands of civilians took to the streets. Encouraged by the uprising of the Arab Spring in surrounding countries, they demanded Assad to step down as president and for political prisoners to be released. The Syrian Spring started in the poor, southern city of Daraa, where the teenagers were shot and killed. In rapid pace, the demonstrations spread over the country, quickly escalating in a violent conflict that, to this day, has not ended.
To understand how this escalation could have happened, it is important to understand the following complex interplay. While several classes and religious groups have known suppression in the history of Syria, it was the poor rural class that generally supported the revolution. The economic elite in Damascus and Aleppo, however, supported the regime in order to protect their economic interests. For the elite, life under Assad’s rule was relatively peaceful and stable.
The people that started the revolution consisted of political oppositions, rebels and deserted soldiers who united against the State. At first they were considered ‘moderate’ and large parts of the Syrian civilian population supported them. When these groups took up arms, and started fighting internally over who could rule what city, they lost some of that support.
The rebel group thus quickly fell apart, mostly dividing along religious lines. The Alawi government fought various rebel groups, with the support of Russia and Iran. Syrian Sunni rebel groups fought the Salafist Jabhat Al-Nusra. Lebanese rebels from the Shi’ist Hezbollah, supported the Assad-regime and mainly fought Islamic State. While Kurdish fighters, opposing the Assad-regime, fought all radical Islam in Northern-Syria.
2014: Islamic State declared its Caliphate. At this stage, the US and their international coalition engage in the conflict. While the US claims to only fight IS, in practice they regularly bomb other rebel groups and civilians. Russia, who already assisted Assad with weapons, now also provides air support. Russia too, claims to bomb IS, while in practice other rebel groups are often targeted.
2018: Assad regains control over Daraa, the city where it all started. Rebels suffer great territorial losses. They all get the choice to flee to Idlib, which is known as the last stronghold of radical Islam, such as IS and Al-Qaida.
2019: The Caliphate of IS is defeated, mainly by the Kurds. The international coalition relied heavily on Kurdish fighters in North-Syria, both during the fights and afterwards for the guarding of the prisons and camps filled with IS fighters and families. Now that IS has been defeated, the US removes its troops from the area. Turkey, who wants to establish a safe-zone near the Turkish border, invades the Kurdish region. Turkey, who has its own conflict with PKK, a Kurdish organisation responsible for several bombings in Turkey, claims the YPG, the group of Kurdish fighters in North-Syria, are also terrorists. The Kurds, no longer backed up by the US, turn to their former enemy and ask Assad for assistance in securing the region and keeping IS fighters in prison. Assad then moves his troops up north, leading to a direct confrontation between Turkish and Syrian troops.
By now, the population of Syria counts roughly 22 million people. The civil war, however, has led to half a million deaths and 11 million refugees (including internally and externally displaced people). The fighting, and thus the casualties, still continue. Idlib is still the last stronghold of both rebels and terrorists. The pending confrontation between Turkey and Assad’s military and Assad’s final offense against Idlib might lead to even more bloodshed.
Since Assad is still in office, the war and all the despair and lost life's that came with it, seems to have been for nothing.
Assad played it out in a clever manner. While he managed to keep the support of the economic elite, he let the Kurds and the international coalition to fight IS, while he fought domestic rebels groups with the support of Russia and Iran, who were both fearful of uprisings in their own country and thus supported Assad’s regime. While the international community was busy fighting terrorists, Assad starved whole cities, bombed civilians and even used chemical weapons. Still, he has not been removed from office. In the end, the international community needs to negotiate with him, because they want to restrict the refugee flow to the West. For practical reasons, thus forcing the international community to accept Assad, regardless of the crimes he may have committed.
For now, the confrontation is not yet over. Every time the US withdraws form an area in the Middle East, Russia is eager to fill the void. Turkey has its own political agenda in the conflict, the Kurds are unsure where to go or who to fight and the remaining rebels and terrorists in Idlib are not laying down their weapons anytime soon. Assad is moving his troops further north, leading to a clash with the Turks and the rebels in Idlib. The battle for Idlib will likely be a bloody one. And when its over, Syria will be the same it was 9 years ago. The only difference will be is even more death and destruction than there was in 2011.
A quick overview of the parties involved:
US → fighting IS, removed troops in the end of 2019
Turkey → fighting the YPG over the establishment of a safe-zone in Syrian Kurdistan and Assad’s military
Russia → fighting IS and supporting Assad’s war against rebels by providing air support and weapons
Syria → Assad’s military is fighting various rebel groups
Islamic State → fights everyone in their attempt to create a Caliphate in the area of Syria, Iraq and other surrounding countries
Hezbollah → Shi’ist Lebanese rebels fighting IS alongside Assad
Jabhat Al-Nusra → Salafist rebel group fighting IS and Sunni rebels
Kurds → YPG fighting IS and other radical Islam
International coalition→ supporting the US and the Kurds in their fight against IS
Other rebel groups → fighting several parties, depending on their loyalty. Including pro-Turkish rebels, rebels allied with Al-Qaida, etc.
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